Lone Wolves as a Threat to Aviation Security: Typology, Tactics, Development Prospects

This paper discusses the threats related to the development of the phenomenon known as lone wolf violence. Its main goal is to analyze lone wolves' activities, particularly their tactics in carrying out actions that pose a threat to aviation safety. The primary method used for the main argument of the paper, interdisciplinary modeling of the determinants of violence, allows for formulating forecasts on the development of lone wolves phenomenon in the most important context for those predictions, i.e., changeability of used means. This inventiveness comes down to disorganized forms of functioning (leaderless resistance) and the methods used in fighting, both of which stem from considerable power disproportions between lone wolves (terrorists) and states. The development of violence among lone wolves is analyzed from the perspective of this constantly changing tactical and technological means. This paper is of both explanatory and prognostic nature. It consists of five parts. The first is dedicated to providing theoretical background and depicting case studies that serve as a starting point for the following analyses. The second section is dedicated to a brief description of used methods. Next, the types of lone wolves' activities are characterized and examined. In section four, the current and potential tactics employed by terrorists are analyzed. This paper concludes with the author's prognosis regarding the future development of this phenomenon.