Modelling fatalities of road accidents in Nigeria

Preponderance of road accidents is one of the major causes of death in Nigeria, but the fatality of these accidents is unknown. In this study, data on casualties of the road accidents in Nigeria are collated, statistically analysed and modelled for predicting fatality of the accidents. The strategies of minimising rise in fatality of road accidents were proposed. The results obtained showed that the fatalities of the road accidents have polynomial relationships with the population of the road users, or time. The highest annual accident fatality probability of 0.17 was obtained over the total population of the road users. The result from combined modelling of traffic population and time showed that the accident fatalities will rise in future unless roads and drivers are well cultured. The findings would be useful for demographers, safety and health workers in their planning.